Chinese-backed aluminium expansion in Indonesia raises supply-surplus concerns – 28 october 2025
Major expansion projects backed by Chinese firms in Indonesia may push global aluminium markets into surplus in 2026, which could exert downward pressure on prices.
👉 Source: Reuters
Summary:
Indonesia exported 325,293 metric tons of aluminium between January and August this year, up 67% from the year-ago period, compared with 10,713 tons in the first eight months of 2023, according to Trade Data Monitor.
“The pace of Indonesian supply growth is going to play a key role in shaping aluminium market balances and prices,” said Ross Strachan, analyst at consultancy CRU.
Primary production of aluminium, also used in construction and packaging, is estimated to exceed 72 million tons this year.
Goldman Sachs projects a global aluminium market surplus of 1.5 million tons in 2026 and 2 million tons in 2027, with Indonesia’s primary production rising from 815,000 tons in 2025 to 1.6 million tons in 2026 and 2.5 million tons in 2027.
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